黄河流域气候与农业种植面积变化对径流的影响     

李华贞  张强  顾西辉  史培军 《湖泊科学》2018,30(4):1138-1151

根据黄河流域1960—2005年5个水文站逐日流量、77个气象站1959—2013年逐日降水数据,结合流域内主要农作物种植面积及大型水库资料,全面探讨气候与农业面积变化及人类活动对黄河流域径流变化的影响.研究表明:黄河流域所有流量分位数总体呈下降趋势,并于1980s中后期到1990s中期发生突变.降水变化是黄河流域径流变化的主要影响因素.在考虑不同流量分位数情况下,农作物种植面积变化对不同分位数径流变化的影响也有差异性.花园口站农作物种植面积变化对径流量量级和可变性均有显著影响;其余4站各项气候变化与农作物种植指标参数较大,虽均未达到10%的显著性水平,但仍会对径流的量级变化产生影响.对唐乃亥站,农作物耕作面积的下降减少了灌溉用水,在0.5流量分位数时有高达60%增加径流量的间接作用.对于头道拐站,农作物耕作面积的增加使得流域总蒸发量增加,灌溉用水增加,在0.3流量分位数时有高达40%减少径流量的间接作用.该研究为气候变化与人类活动影响下黄河流域水资源优化配置提供重要理论依据.  相似文献   

呼和浩特市生境质量对城市用地扩展的时空响应          下载免费PDF全文

冯琰玮  甄江红  马晨阳 《干旱区地理》2020,43(4):1014-1022

以呼和浩特市为研究区,采用梯度分析法,结合InVEST模型,在评价研究区近27 a城市用地扩展及生境质量演变的基础上,运用双变量空间自相关剖析生境质量对城市用地扩展的时空响应。结果表明：（1） 研究时段内,城市扩展表现为核心区的低密度扩张及外围区的多点扩散,紧凑度不断下降,城市结构不稳定,扩展模式不尽合理。（2） 生境平均值从0.49下降到0.44,质量等级跌至较差水平。低等级生境主要呈圈层向南部、东南部扩散,与建设用地扩展方向基本一致。（3） 建设用地扩展强度与生境质量变化空间分布呈负相关关系,核心外围区的建设用地扩展始终为变化最强烈的地带,生境质量退化也最为剧烈。（4） 斑块密度不断上升,特别是建设用地斑块的增加使得城市景观格局愈发破碎。  相似文献   

基于 SRP 概念模型的祁连山地区生态脆弱性评价   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

刘佳茹  赵军  沈思民  赵彦军 《干旱区地理》2020,43(6):1573-1582

基于生态敏感性-生态恢复力-生态压力度（SRP）概念模型，从地形、气候、植被和社会经济 因子选取 8 个评价指标，利用遥感和 GIS 技术，采用主成分分析方法求取权重，对祁连山地区启动 水源涵养区生态环境保护和综合治理规划研究前后近 10 a 的生态脆弱性程度进行系统、定量地评 估，旨在揭示生态脆弱性的分布特征、时空演变及动因，为区域生态保护、资源利用和可持续发展 提供参考。结果表明：（1）从研究区生态脆弱性分布来看，祁连山地区主要以轻度和重度脆弱为 主，脆弱性程度从西北向东南地区逐渐减弱，西北地区植被覆盖度小，海拔高，生态环境较为恶劣 是导致脆弱性程度较高的原因；（2）祁连山地区 3 期生态脆弱程度呈逐渐下降趋势，综合指数分别 为 3.307、3.118 和 3.103；2005 年 生 态 脆 弱 性 较 高 ，极 度 脆 弱 面 积 为 28 610 km²，2010 年 下 降 为 11 723 km²，2015 年降低为 6 174 km²，极度脆弱面积逐渐减少；（3）从祁连山地区生态脆弱性演变动 因来看，8 个指标对生态脆弱性影响均较为显著，但在不同的时间影响程度各不相同，2005—2015 年 3 期数据中对生态脆弱性影响最大的均为植被指数，降水次之，地形因子影响最小。总体来看， 近年来祁连山地区生态脆弱性程度有所降低，但仍然需要加强保护力度，促进生态环境可持续 发展。  相似文献   

科尔沁湿草甸参考作物蒸散发模拟分析     

李霞  刘廷玺  段利民  王冠丽  童新  周亚军  杨晓君 《中国沙漠》2020,40(2):134-143

为探明气候变化下干旱半干旱地区湿草甸参考作物蒸散发(ET₀)影响因子,使用FAO 56 P-M模型对科尔沁湿草甸ET₀进行模拟,利用涡度相关系统对模型的适用性进行评价,并通过通径分析及指标敏感性分析对ET₀的影响因子进行辨识。结果表明:(1)小时尺度模拟精度最高,日尺度次之,月尺度较差,小时尺度上晴、阴、雨3种天气条件下模拟效果不同,晴天最优,阴雨天较差。(2)ET₀年内变化呈单峰曲线状,生长季明显高于非生长季,集中在3—10月,占全年89.79%。生长季典型晴天ET₀逐小时分布特征遵循倒“U”单峰型变化规律。(3)通径分析结果显示,对ET₀的通径系数以及对回归方程估测可靠程度E的总贡献均表现为VPD(饱和水汽压差) > T_min(最低气温) > R_n(冠层表面净辐射)>u₂(2 m高度风速),即VPD为影响ET₀最重要的因子;指标敏感性分析中,在去除VPD后引起的E变化最大,说明ET₀对VPD的变化最为敏感,其次为u₂、T_min和R_n。  相似文献   

基于住房需求意愿的广州市中产阶层住房区位选择     

边艳  周春山  胡锦灿 《热带地理》2020,40(5):832-842

以2014年广州市中产阶层聚居区24个街道、50个社区进行的问卷调查和深度访谈资料为数据源，从住房需求意愿与区位选择方面分析了广州中产阶层住房选择，并运用多元Logistic回归分析法对其影响因素进行研究。研究发现：1）广州市中产阶层住房区位选择表现出明显的“向中心城区”性；2）现居住现状（人均住房面积、现小区区位、现小区建成年代、现居住时间）、家庭生命周期（年龄、家庭规模、子女数量）和经济水平（家庭年总收入、个人年总收入、私家车拥有量）等因素对中产阶层住房需求意愿具有显著影响；3）家庭生命周期（年龄、家庭规模）、个体因素（教育程度、户籍地）等要素对中产阶层住房区位选择具有显著影响。4）制度因素、区位因素和个体因素共同影响着广州市中产阶层住房区位选择。  相似文献   

“一带一路”背景下的中国与巴基斯坦的贸易关系演进及其影响因素     

宋周莺  祝巧玲 《地理科学进展》2020,39(11):1785-1797

中巴经济走廊是“一带一路”6大经济走廊之一,而贸易畅通是“一带一路”建设的核心环节。研究中巴贸易关系演变及其影响因素、分析其贸易潜力,对推进“一带一路”建设具有重要的示范作用。论文从中巴贸易发展态势、商品结构、空间格局等方面揭示中巴贸易关系,运用随机前沿引力模型分析中巴贸易关系的主要影响因素、并探析其发展潜力,以期为推进中巴经济走廊建设提供科学支撑。研究发现：① 中巴贸易发展迅速,中对巴贸易顺差持续扩大;中国主要出口机械及电气设备等资本密集型产品,主要进口纺织原料及纺织制品等初级产品和劳动密集型产品。② 中国各省份与巴基斯坦的贸易合作存在明显的空间差异,东部沿海省份与巴贸易联系较紧密,西部各省份除新疆外与巴基斯坦贸易额均较小。③ 中国多数省份对巴贸易商品结构发生显著变动,其中,新疆、山东等进出口商品结构多元的省份的变动相对较小。④ 中国各省份的经济发展水平和市场规模对中巴贸易拉动较强;海运距离对中巴贸易规模有显著的负向影响;领土接壤为中巴组织边境贸易提供了良好条件;铁路和水运口岸的建设对中巴贸易具有积极影响。⑤ 中国各省份与巴基斯坦均有较大贸易潜力,内蒙古、云南、广西、陕西等省份的合作潜力更明显。  相似文献   

Analysis of city centrality based on entropy weight TOPSIS and population mobility:A case study of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt     

罗静  陈四云  孙璇  朱媛媛  曾菊新  陈广平 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(4):515-534

Based on statistical data and population flow data for 2016,and using entropy weight TOPSIS and the obstacle degree model,the centrality of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)together with the factors influencing centrality were measured.In addition,data for the population flow were used to analyze the relationships between cities and to verify centrality.The results showed that:(1)The pattern of centrality conforms closely to the pole-axis theory and the central geography theory.Two axes,corresponding to the Yangtze River and the Shanghai-Kunming railway line,interconnect cities of different classes.On the whole,the downstream cities have higher centrality,well-defined gradients and better development of city infrastructure compared with cities in the middle and upper reaches.(2)The economic scale and size of the population play a fundamental role in the centrality of cities,and other factors reflect differences due to different city classes.For most of the coastal cities or the capital cities in the central and western regions,factors that require long-term development such as industrial facilities,consumption,research and education provide the main competitive advantages.For cities that are lagging behind in development,transportation facilities,construction of infrastructure and fixed asset investment have become the main methods to achieve development and enhance competitiveness.(3)The mobility of city populations has a significant correlation with the centrality score,the correlation coefficients for the relationships between population mobility and centrality are all greater than 0.86(P<0.01).The population flow is mainly between high-class cities,or high-class and low-class cities,reflecting the high centrality and huge radiating effects of high-class cities.Furthermore,the cities in the YREB are closely linked to Guangdong and Beijing,reflecting the dominant economic status of Guangdong with its geographical proximity to the YREB and Beijing's enormous influence as the national political and cultural center,respectively.  相似文献   

Simulating cross-sectional geometry of the main channel in response to changes in water and sediment in Lower Yellow River     

Wang  Yanjun  Wu  Baosheng  Zhong  Deyu 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(12):2033-2052

Journal of Geographical Sciences - To understand the non-equilibrium morphological adjustment of a river in response to environmental changes, it is essential to (i) accurately identify how past...  相似文献   

A modified numerical model for moisture-salt transport in unsaturated sandy soil under evaporation     

Wei Wen  YuanMing Lai  ZheMin You 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(3):125-133

Soil salinization, caused by salt migration and accumulation underneath the soil surface, will corrode structures. To analyze the moisture-salt migration and salt precipitation in soil under evaporation conditions, a mathematical model consisting of a series of theoretical equations is briefly presented. The filling effect of precipitated salts on tortuosity factor and evaporation rate are taken into account in relevant equations. Besides, a transition equation to link the solute transport equation before and after salt precipitation is proposed. Meanwhile, a new relative humidity equation deduced from Pitzer ions model is used to modify the vapor transport flux equation. The results show that the calculated values are in good agreement with the published experimental data, especially for the simulation of volume water content and evaporation rate of Toyoura sand, which confirm the reliability and applicability of the proposed model.  相似文献   

Coupling numerical simulation with remotely sensed information for the study of frozen soil dynamics     

HuiRan Gao  WanChang Zhang 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(6):404-417

The acquisition of spatial-temporal information of frozen soil is fundamental for the study of frozen soil dynamics and its feedback to climate change in cold regions. With advancement of remote sensing and better understanding of frozen soil dynamics, discrimination of freeze and thaw status of surface soil based on passive microwave remote sensing and numerical simulation of frozen soil processes under water and heat transfer principles provides valuable means for regional and global frozen soil dynamic monitoring and systematic spatial-temporal responses to global change. However, as an important data source of frozen soil processes, remotely sensed information has not yet been fully utilized in the numerical simulation of frozen soil processes. Although great progress has been made in remote sensing and frozen soil physics, yet few frozen soil research has been done on the application of remotely sensed information in association with the numerical model for frozen soil process studies. In the present study, a distributed numerical model for frozen soil dynamic studies based on coupled water-heat transferring theory in association with remotely sensed frozen soil datasets was developed. In order to reduce the uncertainty of the simulation, the remotely sensed frozen soil information was used to monitor and modify relevant parameters in the process of model simulation. The remotely sensed information and numerically simulated spatial-temporal frozen soil processes were validated by in-situ field observations in cold regions near the town of Naqu on the East-Central Tibetan Plateau. The results suggest that the overall accuracy of the algorithm for discriminating freeze and thaw status of surface soil based on passive microwave remote sensing was more than 95%. These results provided an accurate initial freeze and thaw status of surface soil for coupling and calibrating the numerical model of this study. The numerically simulated frozen soil processes demonstrated good performance of the distributed numerical model based on the coupled water-heat transferring theory. The relatively larger uncertainties of the numerical model were found in alternating periods between freezing and thawing of surface soil. The average accuracy increased by about 5% after integrating remotely sensed information on the surface soil. The simulation accuracy was significantly improved, especially in transition periods between freezing and thawing of the surface soil.  相似文献